SPC Mar 2, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North
Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large
hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are
the primary hazards.

...Western OK and Vicinity...
a compact and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this
morning across southern NM, along with an accompanying 90-100 knot
mid-level jet max. Large scale upper divergence and lift ahead of
the low will likely result in scattered thunderstorm activity by
mid-morning across west TX.  This activity will spread eastward
through the day into western OK, with a low-end threat of hail in
the strongest storms.

In the wake of the morning activity, relatively strong heating is
expected to the east of the Caprock, where temperatures will climb
well into the 70s behind the dryline.  A narrow corridor of modest
CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) should develop along the dryline during the
peak heating period.  Most CAM solutions suggest isolated convective
initiation by 21-23z as the primary upper jet max noses into the
region.  Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates
and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for supercells capable of
large hail.  Low-level shear profiles will be quite strong, but
winds in the 3-5km layer exhibit a veer-back-veer pattern that may
disrupt discrete storm modes.  Nevertheless, a couple tornadoes are
also possible.

The primary severe threat is expected to remain focused across
western OK and northwest TX where the best thermodynamic parameters
are forecast.  However, storms will spread eastward through the
evening into central/southern OK and north TX with a continued
isolated severe hail/wind threat.

..Hart/Grams.. 03/02/2025

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