Hydrologic Outlook issued March 3 at 1:32PM CST by NWS Chicago IL

ESFLOT

A strong storm system will move through the region Tuesday into
Wednesday leading to multiple waves of soaking rainfall. The highest
rainfall rates are expected Tuesday morning and again Tuesday
evening. Total rainfall amounts of at least 1 inch will be
widespread by Wednesday morning, with amounts near 2 inches in
isolated areas.

Although soil moisture and river levels remain below average, soils
across the area remain deeply frozen from recent periods of cold
weather. The frost depth of 11 inches measured today at NWS Chicago
is above average for this time of year, and may also contain
elevated soil moisture, frozen in place near the soil surface, from
earlier rainfall and snow melt. The upper most few inches of soil
may begin to thaw prior to the onset of rainfall, but infiltration
will be limited. River ice spotters and recent satellite imagery
indicate that heavy river ice cover has mostly melted since last
week, with only a few isolated areas of heavy ice cover remaining on
portions of the Pecatonica, Fox, and Vermilion rivers. Due to the
limited amount of ice cover, it is very unlikely that ice jams will
impact the flood risk from this rain event.

Runoff will quickly collect in poor drainage areas, ditches, fields,
and yards, shortly after the onset of rainfall, with stream and
river rises to near bankfull possible. Isolated areas of minor
flooding may occur where rainfall is heaviest.

This outlook means that elevated water levels and potential impacts
are possible, but not yet certain. Persons should closely monitor
forecasts including the possibility of flood watches, warnings, and
advisories.

The next scheduled update to this outlook is tomorrow morning.