SPC Mar 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern
and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight.
A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all
possible.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a
Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward
across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains
tonight.  An associated cold front now over the central and southern
High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the
period.

Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on
strong southeasterly low-level flow.  This is resulting in gradual
warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and
western North Texas ahead of the front.  Over the next couple of
hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely
to be slightly elevated initially.  Large hail would likely be the
primary threat with the initial storms.

With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the
front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector.  Storms
should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an
organized/semi-continuous frontal band.  By the latter several hours
of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong
low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the
predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in
potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the
end of the period.

..Goss.. 03/04/2025

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