Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025
* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 23 knots from the southwest with gusts up to…
* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 21 knots from the southwest with gusts up to…
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* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible. * WHERE...Chelan, Culdesac, Pomeroy, Entiat, Lapwai, Alpowa…
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