A developing low pressure system over the Central Plains will eventually shift northeastward today and allowing high pressure along the Atlantic Coast to shift towards the adjacent open waters.
Southerly to southeasterly winds of 10-20 mph can be expected to develop across the state, with wind gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across the Peninsula and stronger wind gusts upwards of 30-40 mph across the Panhandle.
Wind Advisories have been issued across the Panhandle and will go into effect midday due to gusty winds.
Mostly dry conditions can be expected throughout the daytime hours, but onshore winds along the eastern Peninsula may allow for isolated to widely scattered showers (15-35% chance of rain).
High temperatures will warm up into the middle to upper 70s and lower 80s across the state this afternoon as a warm front pulls northward ahead of the approaching frontal system.
Rain chances will begin to increase late this evening and overnight across the Panhandle and Big Bend as a strong cold front pushes eastward towards the state (85-near 100% chance of rain).
A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the Panhandle late this evening and overnight, and will continue to follow the I-10 corridor into the early morning hours on Wednesday.
Atmospheric and environmental conditions look to be favorable for some of these thunderstorms to be strong to severe.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Severe Weather across the Panhandle, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) extending through the Capital City and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) through the central Big Bend.
As of these strong to severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph), embedded tornadoes, large hail (upwards of 1″ or quarter-size) and heavy downpours.
While the cold front will quickly move eastward, any stronger thunderstorm activity may be capable of producing heavy downpours that lead to instances of localized flash flooding and ponding of water – The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Panhandle.
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to upper 60s throughout the state, with low temperatures in the lower 70s along the Southeast Florida coast and the Keys.
Increasingly hazardous beach and boating conditions can be expected across all Panhandle beaches with wave heights near 6-11′, as well as the East Coast with wave heights near 4-7′.
High Surf Warningsand Advisories have been posted along Panhandle beaches and will go into effect later today.
Strong onshore winds and increasing surf may lead to instances of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion near and during times of high tide along the Panhandle and Big Bend, especially Apalachee Bay.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.