MD 0147 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025
Areas affected...south-central Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 051350Z - 051545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A risk of damaging gusts or a brief tornado will gradually
increase across parts of southern Virginia. A watch may eventually
be needed.
DISCUSSION...A strongly forced low-topped convective line continues
to push east across western VA and NC, with a rather wide region of
rain as well. Instability is weak but shear is quite strong. As
persistent southerly winds bring greater theta-e into the region,
temperatures rising into the 60s should eventually yield sufficient
low-level buoyancy to support strong gusts or a brief QLCS tornado.
Prior to any substantial boundary-layer destabilization, any severe
risk will likely remain tied to the forced line.
..Jewell/Smith.. 03/05/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK...
LAT...LON 36897984 37757841 37797764 37417705 36747700 36577714
36577963 36597987 36707994 36897984