SPC MD 148

MD 0148 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA

Mesoscale Discussion 0148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0841 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025

Areas affected...central and northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051441Z - 051615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible through early
afternoon across central and northern Florida.

DISCUSSION...A remnant squall line is moving across northern Florida
this morning. Ahead of this squall line, mid to upper 60s dewpoints
are present across the Florida Peninsula. Currently this airmass
remains capped, but breaks in the clouds should allow sufficient
heating for an uncapped, moderately unstable environment by later
this afternoon. The 12Z JAX RAOB sampled a veering wind profile
favorable for storm organization including supercells. However,
forcing will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe
weather threat. Convergence along the squall line is weak across
north Florida. While some height falls will overspread the region
through the day, the primary differential vorticity advection
corridor will be focused in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, a few strong to severe storms may be possible, but the
threat should remain too isolated for a watch.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 03/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28728309 29708265 30258249 30558218 30638128 30338121
            29718104 29188076 28878060 28298052 27858130 27838203
            27938261 28028287 28728309 

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