SPC Mar 7, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert
Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The potential for
severe weather is expected to remain low.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low and
associated trough over the lower CO Valley/Baja vicinity.  Models
show this mid-level low moving east into NM by late tonight.  In the
low levels, a low initially over KS will move east along a frontal
zone and weaken as it moves into the lower OH Valley.  A trailing
cold front will push southward into central TX by daybreak Saturday.
A weak area of low pressure will move from NM into the Edwards
Plateau tonight.  Southerly low-level flow/warm air advection around
850 mb will act to moisten profiles from central/north TX into
southern OK during the 08/09-12 UTC period.  Forecast soundings over
western north TX show cold 500-mb temperatures (around -20 deg C)
and upwards of 500-1000 MUCAPE.  Isolated to widely scattered
showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are possible.  The majority
of members from the latest convection-allowing model guidance (e.g.,
00 UTC HREF, MPAS) imply limited storm intensity.  The strong
effective shear/cold mid-level temperatures could support hail with
the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is currently
expected to be low.

..Smith/Dean.. 03/07/2025

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