SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with isolated large hail are expected tonight across parts of north-central and northeast Texas. ...North-central and Northeast Texas... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low located over the Desert Southwest, with relatively dry air present within west-southwesterly flow over parts of the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level low in the Desert Southwest moves eastward toward the southern Rockies, low-level moisture advection and instability will increase across the southern Plains. The exit region of the mid-level jet will move eastward into the southern Plains tonight, contributing to a low-level jet response. 850 mb flow is expected to increase to between 30 and 40 knots over parts of southwest and central Texas. As instability and lift increases, thunderstorm development is expected after midnight across parts of north-central Texas. The latest RAP forecast soundings in the 06Z to 12Z time frame over north-central Texas have MUCAPE peaking around 1200 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching 7.5 C/km. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the 50 to 65 knot range. This environment should support an isolated large hail threat with elevated rotating storms. The threat for hail could develop eastward into parts of northeast Texas by the end of the period. For this update, the Marginal Risk has been expanded into northeast Texas. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2025