SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025