SPC Mar 8, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states.

...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across
northern Mexico.  The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River
Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through
the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley
tonight.  In the low levels, a cold front over central TX
east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some
post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over
north and northeast TX.  A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates
(7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east
TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant
hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details).  Short-term
models indicate additional possible storm development later this
morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor
where richer moisture resides.  Additional storm activity is
possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern
Gulf Coast states.  It seems stronger storm coverage will probably
remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk.  As this
activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for
surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the
convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass.  Isolated
large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the
primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025

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