SPC MD 156

MD 0156 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA

Mesoscale Discussion 0156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast TX into northwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 081352Z - 081545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms remain possible through
the morning. The southward extent of development is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...The elevated supercells that earlier moved across parts
of north-central into northeast TX have weakened somewhat, though a
couple strong cells persist near the northeast Metroplex, while a
small elevated bowing cluster is approaching the ArkLaTex region.
The 12Z SHV/FWD soundings depict relatively cool profiles and MUCAPE
around 500 J/kg, though both also depict weak lapse rates in a
saturated layer above 600 mb. With effective shear remaining
favorable for organized convection, the ongoing storms may persist
and at least occasionally pose a localized threat of hail and strong
gusts, before generally moving into less-favorable instability with
eastward extent. 

Farther south, rich low-level moisture (with mid/upper 60s F) is in
place near and south of a cold front draped from central into
northeast TX, with MLCAPE expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg
later this morning. Recent HRRR runs depict storm development near
and just south of this front later this morning into parts of
east-central TX, possibly in response to a low-amplitude midlevel
shortwave trough moving across central TX. Should development occur
in this area, deep-layer shear will support organized storms, with a
somewhat greater conditional severe potential compared to areas
farther north. The scenario of storm development this morning near
the front or within the warm sector remains quite uncertain, but
will continue to be monitored.

..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   33419640 33449496 33229416 32519367 31619395 30969504
            30689662 30959736 32559761 33419640 

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