SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025