SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in parts of north and central Florida. ...FL Peninsula... Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers. The mid-level trough will move over the Peninsula by early evening. A cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm development pushing east of the FL east coast. In the meantime, moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob). Strong mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on adequately strong/sustained updraft development. An isolated threat for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025
