SPC Mar 10, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and
potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in
parts of north and central Florida.

...FL Peninsula...
Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS
moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal
showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward
into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers.  The mid-level trough will
move over the Peninsula by early evening.  A cold front is forecast
to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the
Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm
development pushing east of the FL east coast.  In the meantime,
moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate
buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob).  Strong
mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on
adequately strong/sustained updraft development.  An isolated threat
for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist
prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon.

..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025

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