SPC MD 161

MD 0161 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA

Mesoscale Discussion 0161
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Areas affected...parts of central and southern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101500Z - 101700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm
development remains possible into mid to late afternoon.  Locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail appear
the primary potential hazards, but a short-lived tornado or two
might still be possible, particularly near coastal areas between
Palm Beach and Vero Beach this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The center of developing surface cyclone is now east of
the Georgia coast, and forecast to undergo more substantive
deepening while migrating northeastward offshore of the South
Carolina coast through 18-20Z.  As this proceeds, it appears that
modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will shrink as flow
around 850 mb veers to a more westerly component and begins to
weaken some.  This will coincide with the continued southward
advancement of a surface cold front trailing the cyclone across the
central through southern peninsula.

Still, boundary-layer warming, aided by insolation, appears likely
to maintain modest destabilization, within at least a narrow
corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content characterized by dew
points near 70f and precipitable water on the order of 1.75+ inches.
 In the presence of continuing strong deep-layer shear, beneath
50-70+ kt flow around 500 mb, the environment will remain favorable
for isolated to widely scattered supercell development.  These may
primarily pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps
marginally severe hail, but a short-lived tornado or two might still
not be entirely out of the question.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 03/10/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   26358203 27998120 28678064 27257998 25578086 25868185
            26358203 

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