SPC Mar 13, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north
Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening.
Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central
Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity,
likely owing to dry mid-levels and surface inhibition. The mid-level
wave continues to move across this region with forcing for ascent
continuing over the next few hours, with potential for additional
development across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. 

Ongoing storms are moving into a region with relatively better
moisture, with dew points in the 60s to mid 50s and an axis of
sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) across eastern Texas into western
Louisiana. With the loss of daytime heating, storms may continue to
struggle, however, gusty winds and hail will remain possible given
the steep low to mid-level lapse rates and ample shear. The 00z RAOB
from Shreveport, LA shows minimal low level inversion for most
unstable parcels, however, MLCIN remains present below 700 mb. 

A similar thermodynamic profile is noted further north from Little
Rock, AR, with strong MLCIN below 700 mb and dry mid-levels.
Mid-level cooling aloft is just now spreading eastward across the
Red River in southern Oklahoma/Texas which may aid in more organized
development. This area into western Arkansas will be the most likely
region of additional development over the next couple of hours.
Should more robust supercell development occur, the risk for large
damaging hail and damaging wind will be possible.

..Thornton/Darrow/Guyer.. 03/13/2025

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