SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general thunderstorms are the primary risk. ...01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a brief gust or two may be noted with lagging convection early this evening, severe threat appears too meager to maintain severe probabilities. Upstream, an intense 500mb jet max is digging southeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will translate along the international border into southern NM by the end of the period, increasing in strength to near 115kt by sunrise. Cool, steep lapse rates north of this jet favors weak convection that will spread across the southwestern U.S. into the southern Rockies late tonight. Gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, but storm-driven severe gusts are not anticipated. ..Darrow.. 03/14/2025
