SPC MD 169

MD 0169 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS….WESTERN MISSOURI…NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Areas affected...parts of eastern Kansas....western
Missouri...northwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141525Z - 141730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An initial round of convective development is expected to
remain sub-severe as it spreads northeastward across parts of
western Missouri and northwestern Arkansas through early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated during the past few
hours across parts of southeastern Kansas into northeastern
Oklahoma.  This is occurring within the evolving warm sector of
broad and deep, occluding cyclone over central portions of the high
plains.  However, this appears to be rooted above a stable
boundary-layer, where a narrow corridor of modest
lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is ongoing, in advance of the
leading edge of an initial surge of mid-level cooling overspreading
the central and southern Great Plains.  

Based within, just above, steeper lapse rates associated with a
plume of elevated mix-layer air, CAPE is weak and inhibition remains
otherwise sizable.  Some small hail might be possible in the more
vigorous cells.  However, the risk for severe weather is expected to
remain minimal with this initial convection, and it remains unclear
how long it will persist.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 03/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38129553 39279549 39629400 38609240 37579261 36179295
            35469419 36739448 38129553 

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