MD 0200 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Areas affected...extreme southeast Mississippi into much of western
and central Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 151619Z - 151745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon,
including the potential for multiple intense, destructive tornadoes.
A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be issued in
the next hour.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, including supercells, continue to
increase in coverage and intensity over in MS with the rapid
approach of a potent mid-level trough. A pronounced 500 mb speed max
will glance the region to the west, promoting the maintenance of
ongoing storms, while also contributing to adequate deep-layer
ascent for the development of new supercells in warm-sector
confluence bands. As this occurs, these supercells will mature in a
moistening low-level airmass, with dewpoints in the mid 60s F,
overspread by 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. MLCAPE should reach
around 2000 J/kg amid 400+ m2/s2 effective SRH (driven by large,
elongated/curved hodographs that are already evident via regional
VADs). The anticipated parameter space will be highly supportive of
tornadic supercells. The more discrete, dominant supercell
structures will be capable of intense, destructive tornadoes, and
violent tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A severe hail/wind threat
should also accompany any robust, sustained thunderstorms. A
Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be needed in the
next hour to address the impending severe threat.
..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 31468689 30738738 30418812 30488903 30678929 31118899
31568843 32138842 34508792 34888771 34938686 34598605
33918572 33108579 32258622 31468689