SPC MD 201

MD 0201 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 45… FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

Mesoscale Discussion 0201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...northern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...

Valid 151620Z - 151745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to intense tornadoes are likely through
mid-afternoon across northern Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...Several mature, embedded supercells are starting to
emerge out of the larger area of precipitation across northwest
Mississippi with additional development possible from showers
evident on radar across northeast Mississippi. One of these
supercells, in Humphreys County, has had a persistent very strong
mid-level mesocyclone and tops over 50kft. In addition, structural
damage has been reported from this storm indicating the potential
for a tornado. This supercell and any other mature supercells which
develop are expected to persist east across the state through the
early-to-mid afternoon. 0-1km SRH from the GWX VWP is around 350
m2/s2 and increasing. The instability is not as great across
northern Mississippi where extensive cloud cover has muted daytime
heating somewhat. However, there is still ample instability for
maintenance of ongoing supercells. The combination of instability
and shear has yielded STP values of 2 to 3 which should increase
through the early afternoon as both shear and instability increase.
The 15Z WoFs shows several moderate low-level rotation tracks across
the northern part of the state over the next several hours which
supports expectations based on the aforementioned observational
data. Therefore, several strong to intense tornadoes are likely over
the next 2 to 3 hours across northern Mississippi within PDS Tornado
Watch 45.

..Bentley.. 03/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32759097 33689042 34588951 34788871 34708831 33618834
            33048886 32669037 32759097 

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