SPC Mar 16, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong
tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across
Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight.

...01z Update...

Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over
eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley
later this evening as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates through the
base of the trough into the central Gulf States. While the primary
synoptic front is lagging the organized band of convection, ample
low-level convergence/inflow is noted across southern AL/western FL
Panhandle into western GA. This will encourage ongoing activity to
propagate downstream, aided by the fast-approaching mid-level speed
max/short wave. This corridor of storms is multifaceted with
embedded supercells and bowing type structures, within an otherwise
broad precip shield. Latest observations suggest the most buoyant
air mass is correlated with mid-upper 60s surface dew points, which
have advanced as far north as ALX in eastern AL. Air mass recovery
is expected downstream into western GA which should support a
continuation of ongoing severe into this region. 00z sounding from
FFC exhibits fairly steep lapse rates through 6km, and further
boundary-layer moistening will prove beneficial for further
destabilization. Strong tornado threat continues with any supercells
as large-scale support and very strong shear remain favorable.
Additionally, damaging winds can be expected with any line segments,
and bowing structures. Hail is also possible, especially across the
more buoyant southern areas.

..Darrow.. 03/16/2025

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