SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025