SPC Mar 19, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening
from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana.  A few tornadoes,
large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible.

...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight...

A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will
continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and
into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit
region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this
afternoon into early evening. 

Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and
northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may
inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore,
boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in
the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F.
If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints
from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast
guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs
from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest
destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across
central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the
afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development
across IL by 18-19z. 

Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated
hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These
vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and
LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly
aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest
boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk
this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a
localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some
risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk
would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional
risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG
tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also
pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail
up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop
southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by
late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset.

...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening...

Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this
morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this
afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s
F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north,
it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm
advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally
near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite
strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band
of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts.

..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025

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