Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move rapidly across the eastern states today, with primary midlevel speed max sweeping across the Gulf Coast states and nosing into the Carolinas during the afternoon. Cooling aloft with this system will be substantial as a band of strong meridional flow approaches the East Coast late in the day. At the surface, a trough will deepen slightly ahead of a cold front with strongest afternoon push from GA into the Carolinas where 850 mb winds will exceed 40 kt out of the west/southwest. While an elongated north-south band of precipitation is likely to accompany the cold front, instability is forecast to be quite weak. MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg may develop near the front, perhaps effectively elevated as the front undercuts meager moisture return and lapse rates steepen aloft. A plume of steeper low-level lapse rates will accompany the dry slot from GA into the Carolinas, but forecast soundings indicate little severe potential due to limited moisture. As such, severe storms are not forecast, but locally gusty winds are expected with the band of showers and due to vertical mixing considerations. ..Jewell/Moore.. 03/20/2025