SPC Mar 20, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper trough will move rapidly across the eastern states
today, with primary midlevel speed max sweeping across the Gulf
Coast states and nosing into the Carolinas during the afternoon.
Cooling aloft with this system will be substantial as a band of
strong meridional flow approaches the East Coast late in the day.

At the surface, a trough will deepen slightly ahead of a cold front
with strongest afternoon push from GA into the Carolinas where 850
mb winds will exceed 40 kt out of the west/southwest.

While an elongated north-south band of precipitation is likely to
accompany the cold front, instability is forecast to be quite weak.
MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg may develop near the front, perhaps
effectively elevated as the front undercuts meager moisture return
and lapse rates steepen aloft. A plume of steeper low-level lapse
rates will accompany the dry slot from GA into the Carolinas, but
forecast soundings indicate little severe potential due to limited
moisture.  As such, severe storms are not forecast, but locally
gusty winds are expected with the band of showers and due to
vertical mixing considerations.

..Jewell/Moore.. 03/20/2025

Read more