SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon... A midlevel trough and an associated surface cold front will progress eastward from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast by late this evening/early tonight. Only a narrow corridor of low-level moistening is expected ahead of the front, as a result of only partial air mass modification and poor trajectories from the Gulf and western Atlantic. There could be sufficient heating and moistening for very weak buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE) and convection deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes in a band along the front this afternoon, especially across eastern NC. While there is a low chance for isolated wind damage, the very weak buoyancy does not support the addition of severe wind probabilities. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/20/2025