SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/20/2025