SPC Mar 21, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts/hail
are possible Saturday night into early Sunday morning across
portions of eastern Kansas into Missouri.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the central Rockies and
eject into the Plains states as another mid-level trough moves into
the Atlantic tomorrow (Saturday). Surface cyclone development should
take place over the northern Plains by Saturday afternoon, promoting
modest moisture return up into the mid-MO Valley as cold
temperatures aloft advect over the central Rockies/Plains from the
west. High-based, low-topped convection will become prevalent across
the Plains, along with gusty conditions during the afternoon, before
deeper convection becomes established in the low-level warm-air
advection regime across the MO Valley Saturday night. Isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms could develop late Saturday
night/early Sunday morning across eastern KS into MO.

...Central/Northern Rockies into the central Plains...
As the upper trough ejects into the Plains and supports surface low
development, cold temperatures aloft (i.e. -20C around 500 mb) will
support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading a relatively
deep, dry boundary layer Saturday afternoon. High-based, low-topped
storms should develop by afternoon peak heating amid vertical
profiles characterized by wind speeds quickly increasing with
height. Overall buoyancy should be shallow, with no more than a
couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE expected. However, some of the more
robust convective updrafts that develop may be deep enough to
support both charge separation for lightning flashes, and effective
downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft for strong
wind gusts given steep lapse rates through the column. However,
questions remain how prevalent 50+ kt gusts would become with these
storms, precluding severe probabilities this outlook.

...Eastern KS into MO Saturday...
By late Saturday night, a 50-60 kt southwesterly low-level jet will
develop around 850 mb, encouraging appreciable low-level warm-air
and moisture advection ahead of an approaching surface cold front.
Steep lapse rates will also precede the cold front, supporting at
least 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE amid largely curved and elongated
hodographs/well over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Nearly all of
this buoyancy is contained above 850 mb, so elevated
multicells/supercells with an isolated severe gust/hail threat is
expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

..Squitieri.. 03/21/2025

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