SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma into portions of eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Synopsis... As a leading shortwave trough moves eastward across the Mid Atlantic, high pressure behind a cold front will shift into the Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys, also extending into the Gulf of America. Meanwhile, another wave will be moving into the northern Rockies by 00Z, and will amplify as it moves across the northern Plains and mid MO Valley overnight. As this system emerges into the Plains, low pressure will deepen over SD, and southerly winds will increase from the western Gulf into the southern Plains. Dewpoints into the 50s F will spread as far north as Kansas City by 12Z Sunday. As the upper trough interacts with this moist plume, strong storms will become increasingly likely from late evening into the overnight hours from far northeast OK into the lower MO Valley, with primarily hail potential. ...Northeast OK into the lower MO Valley and vicinity... Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern OK and western AR through 00Z, with stronger elevated instability rapidly spreading across eastern KS and MO during the evening. Indications are that initial activity may develop between 00-03Z over northeast OK near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb will favor cells producing large hail as cells proceed into southern MO. There is also a risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time, with any potential far-southern cell closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast OK into extreme northwest AR. Overnight, as a cold front moves east across KS, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the IA/MO border will support isolated hail as well in the warm advection regime. ...Northern High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the midlevel jet axis and behind the cold front and developing low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal instability in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable time of day could yield a few strong gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/22/2025