SPC Mar 22, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and
strong gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast
Oklahoma into portions of eastern Kansas and much of Missouri.

...Synopsis...
As a leading shortwave trough moves eastward across the Mid
Atlantic, high pressure behind a cold front will shift into the
Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys, also extending into the Gulf of
America. Meanwhile, another wave will be moving into the northern
Rockies by 00Z, and will amplify as it moves across the northern
Plains and mid MO Valley overnight.

As this system emerges into the Plains, low pressure will deepen
over SD, and southerly winds will increase from the western Gulf
into the southern Plains. Dewpoints into the 50s F will spread as
far north as Kansas City by 12Z Sunday. As the upper trough
interacts with this moist plume, strong storms will become
increasingly likely from late evening into the overnight hours from
far northeast OK into the lower MO Valley, with primarily hail
potential.

...Northeast OK into the lower MO Valley and vicinity...
Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead
to destabilization over eastern OK and western AR through 00Z, with
stronger elevated instability rapidly spreading across eastern KS
and MO during the evening. Indications are that initial activity may
develop between 00-03Z over northeast OK near the low-level jet axis
as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool
temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height as well as
deepening moisture through 700 mb will favor cells producing large
hail as cells proceed into southern MO. There is also a risk of a
tornado, though highly conditional at this time, with any potential
far-southern cell closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast
OK into extreme northwest AR.

Overnight, as a cold front moves east across KS, lift will be
enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could
develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and
wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending
north toward the IA/MO border will support isolated hail as well in
the warm advection regime.

...Northern High Plains...
Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon
north of the midlevel jet axis and behind the cold front and
developing low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal
instability in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow
and favorable time of day could yield a few strong gusts.

..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/22/2025

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