SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... As an eastern U.S. upper trough continues progressing eastward toward/across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, a second trough is progged to advance southeastward out of the northern Intermountain region into/across the northern and central Plains, and the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025