SPC Mar 22, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to
northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and
possibly a tornado or two.

...Synopsis...
As an eastern U.S. upper trough continues progressing eastward
toward/across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, a second trough
is progged to advance southeastward out of the northern
Intermountain region into/across the northern and central Plains,
and the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning.

At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota
area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper
Great Lakes.  A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward
across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area...
Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front
will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley
area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into
Texas.  While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly
conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front
should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm
development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee,
during the afternoon.

With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low
levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that
stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally
damaging wind gusts.  The risk should maximize through late
afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem
with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening.

..Goss.. 03/22/2025

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