SPC Mar 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas
and much of Missouri.

...MO/OK/KS/AR...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving
across CO.  This feature will move into the central Plains today,
and the mid MS Valley overnight.  Ahead of the trough, mostly clear
skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of
KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually
increasing moisture.  By early evening, models suggest a developing
low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast
OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in
the 00-03z time period.  Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly
consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms
lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. 
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE
support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this
evening.  Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk
area.

...North-Central High Plains...
Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this
afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and
eastern WY.  Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable
diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts.

..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025

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