SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025