SPC Mar 22, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening
from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though
a couple of tornadoes also are possible.

...East TX into KY/TN/AL...

An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east,
extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by
Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend
from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A
southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the
region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ
possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough
deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection
during the afternoon and into the overnight period.

At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the
morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing
cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from
mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly
low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the
front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A
narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS
Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft
(generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse
rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. 

Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected
over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer
moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as
further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal
forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least
an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail.

Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with
south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but
frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm
development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with
southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells
or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the
main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However,
a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from
northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be
possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast
extent during the overnight hours.

..Leitman.. 03/22/2025

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