SPC Mar 23, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it
moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with
increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with
a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the
ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most
prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with
dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across
the entire frontal zone.

...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX...
Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with
activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will
fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated
strong gusts may occur.

In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead
of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel.
Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX
with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and
deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along
the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to
produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few
supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur.
The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as
it shifts into northern AL and central MS.

..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025

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