SPC Mar 23, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a
couple of tornadoes could also occur.

...Lower MS Valley...
A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today,
with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL.  To the south of this
feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf
moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR.  As
continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur,
sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm
development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. 
These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level
lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.  Strong deep-layer shear
will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening
low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are
the primary concern.  Storms will track eastward into middle TN by
early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. 
Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a
greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening.  Activity is
expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the
03-05z period.

...East TX...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into
north-central TX.  This boundary will continue southward through the
day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm
sector to the south of the front.  CAM solutions are in strong
agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of
the front by early evening.  Forecast soundings show sufficient
vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025

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