SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025