SPC Mar 23, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern
Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday,
with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper
ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to
extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern
MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This
front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into
north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of
the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight
period as a warm front. 

...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle...

Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central
Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of
the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of
marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another
round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the
cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in
the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be
modest, but increasing speed with height will produce
elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft
(near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7
C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This
suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk
for hail.

...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity...

A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could
exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level
moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across
the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best
with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across
the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some
CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the
afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP
soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with
negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress
convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep
midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near
2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result
in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some
potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The
overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe
probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/23/2025

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