A weak tropical disturbance, JTWC Invest 96W, is centered west-
southwest of Palau near 5N129E. In addition, an overall increase in
Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) activity is expected to create an
unsettled weather pattern in far western Micronesia for the next few
days. 96W will help direct deep tropical moisture into the region,
and combined with strengthening trade-wind convergence in its wake is
expected to generate scattered to numerous locally heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms across Yap and Palau. There remains high
uncertainty in the coverage and timing of showers due to the
developing system being poorly organized. Significant rainfall is
expected with this system, however, ensemble probabilities currently
do not favor 24 hr accumulations over 2 inches for the islands. Model
guidance shows the potential for gusts to 30 mph near heavier
showers; this is mainly for Yap, but convectively-driven gusts cannot
be ruled out for showers developing near Palau. Palau is currently
experiencing some showers from trade-wind convergence east of 96W,
but a broad surface trough will begin to interact with the NET,
allowing conditions to deteriorate as early as Monday for Yap and
further deteriorate for Palau Monday night. 96W is expected to slowly
meander northward. By Tuesday night, 96W and NET activity is
expected to weaken and overall weather for Yap and Palau gradually
improves.
