SPC Mar 24, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN 
LA...MS...AL AND WESTERN FL/GA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible today
from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
Amplified mid-level flow will progress across the CONUS as an upper
trough moves from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and a ridge
builds steadily over the West. A cold front, trailing from a surface
low will advance toward the Atlantic and Gulf Coast before stalling
across south-central TX this afternoon. A band of thunderstorms will
move southeastward across portions of the Southeast with a risk for
marginal damaging gusts and hail.

...Southern LA, to southwest GA and the western FL Panhandle...
A band of loosely organized thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing
this morning ahead of the increasingly zonal cold front across parts
of southern LA, southern GA and the FL Panhandle. Moderate buoyancy
and modestly strong westerly flow aloft may support a continued
marginal hail and wind risk as these storms approach the Gulf Coast.
The most likely area for this appears to be across far southern LA
and MS. At least a couple hours of filtered diurnal heating is
possible ahead of the band of storms, along with access to somewhat
steeper mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) from the west. This could
support a slight rejuvenation of convection for a few hours, with a
risk for hail and damaging gusts. However, storms should move
offshore by early afternoon while the front and the remaining
unstable air mass stall just inland.

Farther east into the Carolinas, the late return of the deeper
surface moisture coupled with increasingly poor mid-level lapse
rates ahead of the eastward moving cold front suggests buoyancy will
not be large (<500 J/kg MUCAPE). A few storms may still redevelop
along the primary surface front, with potential for isolated gusty
outflow winds. However, overall severe potential appears quite low
given increasingly limited buoyancy.

...South-central TX...
As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually lift northward,
strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very
isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edwards
Plateau and south-central TX. Area RAP soundings show steep
mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which
could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts.
However, this appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises
and little ascent away from the slow moving surface front. As such,
probabilities will continue to be withheld given the low conditional
risk.

..Lyons/Darrow.. 03/24/2025

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