SPC Mar 24, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on
Tuesday.

...Discussion...
A very slowly progressing upper pattern -- featuring an eastern U.S.
trough and a ridge over the interior West -- will persist across the
U.S. Tuesday.  Through the second half of the period, an eastern
Pacific trough is forecast to impinge on the West Coast.

At the surface, the primary/remnant surface baroclinic zone -- which
will have moved off the eastern seaboard prior to the start of the
period, is forecast to trail westward from Florida to Texas.  

At this time, it appears that showers and a few thunderstorms will
affect roughly the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, in
the vicinity of the surface front, and near sea-breeze boundaries
south of the front.  Gusty winds and small hail may occur with one
or two of the stronger storms.

Farther west, a very conditional risk for isolated storm development
appears to exist across central and northern Texas during the
afternoon.  Steep lapse rates/ample CAPE, but modest flow aloft
suggests disorganized storms, but low/conditional risk for
near-severe hail and/or wind is apparent.  Overnight, elevated
convection may develop north of the surface front, over the Oklahoma
vicinity.  However, modest CAPE suggests that any hail should remain
sub-severe.

Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may be possible near Pacific
Northwest coastal ranges very late in the period, as the upper
trough approaches.  Severe weather is not expected.

..Goss.. 03/24/2025

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