SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025
