SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OR/WA/NORTHERN ID... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in later outlooks. A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet, near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025