Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas. ...Southern FL Peninsula... Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail could be noted with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S. Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025
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