SPC Mar 25, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

...Synopsis...
Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western
ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. 
Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears
the Pacific Northwest Coast.

At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend
from Florida to Texas.  Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a
deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific
Northwest through the day.

...Pacific Northwest...
Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area
during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly
moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal
destabilization.  Questions persist regarding the degree of
low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and
subsequent intensity.

With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper
low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would
otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms.  At
this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level
flow/shear should remain weak.  However, the favorable overall setup
could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus
modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed.

...Far West Texas vicinity...
A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian
Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains.  However, presuming an
isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse
rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. 
Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk
is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a
risk area at this time.

..Goss.. 03/25/2025

Read more