SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025