SPC Mar 25, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid
Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western
and southern Texas.

...Synopsis...
Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected
Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and
deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. 
Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross
northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the
Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the
Pacific Northwest coast.  Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to
advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from
the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the
end of the period.

...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande
Valley...
Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across
Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough
spreads across the region.  While flow aloft will remain modest,
ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with
risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds.  Coverage of stronger
convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction
of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours.

...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt...
Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm
front advancing northward across the central CONUS.  Sufficiently
steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE,
resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska
east-southeastward to Indiana.  With west-northwesterly mid-level
flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone,
sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to
evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail.

..Goss.. 03/25/2025

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