SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025